The water temperatures are very high which looks like a large potential to be bad.
El Nino appears to be blocking some hurricane formations - but this may not last through the entire season. If it diminishes in strength or moves north then there is the potential for up to 19 named storms with up to 10 hurricanes and 3 or 4 majors.
Looks like my trip south should wait until December at the end of the season.
I have watched Ryan's weather videos for over a year - they are consistently good - the graphics are excellent - his youtube channel is here: https://www.youtube.com/@RyanHallYall
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